If there were any doubts about who's in charge of the Washington Redskins "Football" operation, Mike Shanahan's presser following Day 1 of training camp should have erased all of them.  His description of Albert Haynesworth's conditioning test made one thing perfectly clear....the inmates no longer run the Ashburn asylum.  "He understood where I was coming from," said Shanahan, "and he understands that he’s got to be at a certain level to go out on the field and practice with the rest of that football team. If he gets there, then he’ll be with us, And if he doesn’t, he won’t.”  Sounds pretty clear to me. 

Shanahan could have gone almost anywhere to coach.  Part of his motivation to get back in coaching was to prove to the employer that fired him that they (the Broncos) were nuts.  Winning it all is his goal and at his age, there's no way he's going to let some clueless 20-something screw it up for him.  As Eddie Murphy said in 48 Hours, "there's a new sherriff in town, and his name is Mike Shanahan". 

If Albert Haynesworth comes to camp Thursday in shape than it proves at least one thing--something motivated him.  But what?  Over the course of his career, money has been his primary motivator.  For the most part, his best conditioning and his most productive seasons have come during "contract" years.  2010 is not one of those.  So, if as reported, he's lost weight and is in terrific physical shape....why?  Here are the possibilities? 

First, and for Redskins fans the most hopeful, maybe he felt the sting of the criticism after missing several voluntary OTA's and a manadatory minicamp.  Perhaps he thought initially most would recognize that he had the contractual right to miss the OTA's and that missing one lousy minicamp wouldn't be an Archduke Ferdinand moment in what has now escalated into a DC war against Big Al.  He surely couldn't have thought that after taking $32 million for four sacks that a football town like Washington was going to be sympathetic.  But maybe in his world where it's all Albert all the time he thought he could get away with being unprofessional and borderline immoral.  Once the firestorm spread its way to his big yacht on the Tennessee River, maybe someone said to him, "Al, they hate you!".  And maybe since it wasn't just fans saying "we hate you" but his teammates, maybe just maybe, he decided there was just one way to make everyone less hateful.  Get in shape and play well.  Of course, this theory provides that Al cares about what others think.

Second, Big Al is in shape because he needs the money.  Is it possible that debts to ex-wives and mothers of out-of-wedlock children that the $21 million the Skins just gave him is gone?  Probably not, but the Skins are still on the hook for at least $9 million more if he stays and plays.  

Third, he's in shape because he doesn't want to play nose-tackle.  This theory goes as follows....the more weight he loses, the less likely he'll be big enough to play the nose. 

Lastly, he's in shape because he wants to get shipped/traded.  There was little market for an out-of-shape malcontent, what about an in-shape malcontent?  That market may be bigger and Al knows it.

The NCAA Tournament announced its 68-team seeding/bracket format and I think they missed out on a better opportunity.  The plan is to hold a 4-game first round called the "First Four" which will include two games between the final four at-large teams and another two between four #16 seeds for the right to move on to the round of 64.  So, as an example, next year's first round could be #16 Sam Houston State vs. #16 Morgan State; #16 Alabama A&M vs. #16 Robert Morris; #12 Clemson vs. #12 Illinois; #11 Oklahoma vs. #11 Cal. 

I think the better offering for fans which would have resulted in two pretty good television nights on Tuesday and Wednesday would have been to have the final eight at-large teams play each other for the right to move on.  While technically unfair competitively because in essence #16 seeds would be given first round byes while 10-11-12 seeds would be forced to play first round games, the truth is that the tournament has always been on some level unfair because lesser teams were given automatic bids while better teams were left out altogether.  The new deal with CBS/Turner needs additional compelling tournament television nights.  The final eight at-large teams playing back to back doubleheaders on Tuesday and Wednesday night makes better television.

he is staying in Cleveland....right?  He wouldn't hold a one hour national TV special to announce he's leaving Cleveland for Miami...would he?  It would be in bad taste and borderline cruel to Clevelanders.  He has to know that taking out an hour of national TV to make his announcement would leave a terrible taste in the mouths of the town that has supported him so unconditionally.  I think he's staying.

As a father of three, I've spent my fair share of time on suburban soccer fields watching kids run around, kick a soccer ball, and celebrate any result with orange slices, goldfish and mini-Gatorades.  Drive by a Bethesda or Reston school or park on a Saturday morning in the fall or spring and you'll see hundreds of kids doing it.  And when the game ends, they all walk back to a parking lot filled with SUV's and minivans, usually after stopping for a blueberry/raspberry shaved ice.  And therein lies the problem with American soccer.  Our hungriest athletes don't play it.  Drive by an Anacostia park or school on the same Saturday morning and the kids are playing basketball, not soccer.

I hate when people assume that suburban kids aren't as capable athletically as kids from the city.....that's usually uttered by someone who's never participated in sports.  The difference isn't always athleticism, the difference usually comes in the hunger to make it more than just a Saturday morning social.  The difference is also in the creativity that develops when you're playing it all the time and not just on pretty landscaped fields.  Soccer at the world's highest levels is played by those that started playing it on the streets.  One ball, two makeshift goals, and pavement, or dirt, or gravel.  And those that play that way view it as a way out more than a way in ( to Middlebury, Amherst or Haverford).  Until soccer becomes a "street" game in this country, we're not going to be very good at it and it'll continue to be at best a third-tier sport in this country.

Albert Haynesworth's statement today says he's coming to training camp.  I'll believe it when I see it but more to the point, I think the chances are this will be settled by then.  Haynesworth's arrogance shouldn't be a surprise in this day and age.  Athletes, entertainers, many that were born with exceptional talent and pampered because of it are rarely exposed to the rules of personal and professional decency.  Special talents like Haynesworth who rarely feel anything but entitlement don't live by the same rules and are incredulous when someone calls them out for it.  On some level it's not their fault...they just don't know any better. 

Let's move on.  What's next?  Will he post for training camp?  Here are some possible outcomes with odds on each.  

1.  He shows up at training camp in shape and ready to play!  Chances-10%

2.  The Redskins cut him without getting any money back saying bye bye to the distraction and bye bye to the cash.  Chances-15%

3.  Big Al and the Redsknis negotiate a buyout with either a corresponding trade or an unconditional release.  Chances-60%

4.  Other possibilites which include the Redskins recovering some or all of the money through some breach of contract or forfeiture ability.  Chances-15%

#3 above is the most likely of the possibilities for these reasons. First, 21 million is real money and the Redskins should feel like if he wants out, it's only fair that he give back the money he didn't earn to get out.  Secondly, the Redskins have some some leverage.  Their leverage is that he doesn't want to play here, that he wants to go somewhere else.  If so, that could lead to a quick negotiated buyout or if he tests their mettle, the Redskins could play hard-ball and say, get in shape, show up, and play where we tell you to play.  And if you don't, we'll deactivate you for the rest of your career.  The risk is that he doesn't care if he plays the rest of his career and the Redskins would have to continue to pay him as long as he's on the roster.  Lastly, getting all or some of the money back is in the team's best long-term interests because it says to everyone else, you're not coming here, taking our money, and then pouting your way out of town.

So that's where this thing is right now.  The most likely result is a buyout of some kind....my guess, before training camp.